Well things have pretty much got back under control after the big blizzard of 2010. Most people have finally escaped their yards the mail is back running and the highways are open. It is very unusual to see such a large storm of that magnitude however it does happen on occasion and is probably the second worst blizzard I was in. The worst one oddly enough did not take the power out however it was much more dangerous and more people died in the city.

The farm keeps rolling on as always and one always has to keep up with the daily work that it brings. It is not too intensive right now however there is some time spent out in the cold for sure. Right now our main focus is getting product moved when we have a chance to keep the cash flow cycle running as best as possible. In this area agriculture has really improved I think over the last few years. It used to be more of a harvest it in the fall and sell a little in the fall but almost all of your production went out in the middle of the next summer. So this of course gave issue to having a glut of money you had to stretch out over the entire year. Now there are some different options farmers have and the cash flow works throughout the year in a more normal way.

Poker is still poker. Right now variance has got a hold of me and I'm down a couple buyins each day for the last two days. I have made some close calls and didn't win those 60/40 or 55/44. It never helps when you run into to the top of their range for a couple hands. I also have made a couple mistakes in my hand reading and stacked off in situations I may should have gotten away from. I'm implementing a plan to take a little more time on each major decision.

However this isn't my main problem since while reviewing my stats last night I found that I am running even in big pots won vs, big pots lost. Therefore I am losing most of my money in $4-$5 pot range. Most of this occur when I have to fold the river to major pressure. This is just variance and the river cards I'm seeing completely crush my hands usually. Even if it goes check check I find my opponent has usually made his nut flush or straight draw and was hoping I'd continue my aggression. However I don't in those spots since I'm only getting called by better and I do have showdown value. Bad in a way but I'm saving money against players who are playing very transparent. I mean what else can they have when they only call two streets to full pot bets but a draw. At my level if players think they have the best hand they usually shovel the money in. So I'm not totally sure how to fix this yet or if I can. I may just have to work through it as if I can't get them off their draws I can only make them pay to see the next card.

Well I guess thats all for now, so keep the cards in the air and the chips in your stack.

Hey all,

Not too much to report just another weekend down.  Didn't get to play as many hands as I usually do because we had a weekend blizzard here in the ol, SK and the power was out for around 16 hours, and around twelve at one time.  So I was busy chopping wood and making sure that things would stay warm all night long.  This really cut into my time playing as until I was sure the power was back on I didn't want to play and get disconnected in a big pot as I did that once this winter when I had the nuts on two tables and ended up losing both hands due to my disconnect. 

As you can see I stumbled a little Friday but then came back strong yesterday and ended up posting a strong comeback.  Some of this I was probably only play my B- game not my A+ so thats my own fault.  However the games are good aggro and soft so I just need to get it in good, and stop worrying about some of the pots that are more marginal and create more variance for myself.  Obviously though in some spots against certain crazy opponents I just have to get it in and pray.

My biggest winner of the weekend.  The two players in the hand were right crazies so this was just a variance hand I was going with the whole way and was sure my stack was going in so gg me.

http://weaktight.com/1937262 

My biggest loss of the weekend.  I'm still not sure about my play.  I think I played too much toward the table dynamic and not enough towards the player to player dynamic.  If I had did this I might have laid this down, or atleast took a more pot control line here.

http://weaktight.com/1937275

I also want to see some people vying for the leatherass book, as I'm sure it would be quite helpful to anyone on these forums as well as a signed copy is a nice touch so time to step up the forum aggression.

Well I had this one wrote out but I went to link and image and it all disappeared so we'll give it another shot here. 

Poker has been going fairly well and I'm playing really well for the most part.  I still make mistakes but I'm taking those out of my game as much as I can.  My hand reading has been dead on lately which it should be if I want to move up however I have been pleased with that part of my game as well as the strong lines that I've been taking in certain situations.  I think a good showing of this was last night.  I had the ace high flush in my hand and played it standard to how I play it trying to extract maximum value from a lower flush.  However the turn brought a connecting club to the board, and it went check check.  I bet the river the first even number over half pot, and the villain raised to just over 2x my bet.  I smelled the straight flush but had to call just because it would be too exploitable to not call down in any situation were you have the ace high flush on a non paired board.  However he did have the straight flush so I definitly saved the minimum there.  

I've also been frustrated with the fact I have run under ev everyday for two months.  Even though I may be posting wins these wins could be larger if I didn't lose to so many 40bb stacks in tight 60/40 spots.  If I actually won more of these than I seemed to lose I would be much happier.  And I'm not saying I don't win any of these hands it just seems that I'm not running at were I could be or making that little bit extra.  However I just finished the new Stinger video and he says to let it go, plus he went on a 50bi downswing so I can't feel bad anymore, just wait for my million dollar day lol. 

Tried a little rush poker last night and lost a buyin fairly quickly and decided to stop before I started being silly.  However Zimba went on a tear which was well deserved and was still playing when I was done for the night.  Who knows he could be playing high stakes by now if his heater has continues.

As far life things nothing much has been going on.  Just went curling the other night since a team needed a replacement and I got it under control.  It is just like riding a bike however when you haven't did it for awhile your not always in the best of shape.  But it's all in fun and we did win so it ended well.

I'll leave you with a strip from redmeat.com by Max Cannon, and sometimes you have to get creative in extracting money from the fish and this strip reminded me of that.  Not sure why

Hey PC nuts. 

I always feel awkard writing that because I feel in a way I'm calling everyone politically correct.  Anyways not much in the life area to report.  Just sittin on the farm all weekend taking care of business livin the good life.

As far as poker goes it was a pretty big weekend clearing my bonus and making 5bi of profit.  However I was up more but had a bad session last night.  Lost some flips against some shortstacks, had to make some folds on the river in medium sized pots, and I played one hand poorly and called down for half a stack knowing I was beat.  Equity wise I'm playing very well but still haven't went on a major heater yet, this last weekend was really just players giving it up in dominated situations, I still ran slightly behind in my 60/40 and flips. 

I also wanted to do a quick example of an all in equity calculation.  This is for PLO and from slowhabit but you can do the same for holdem using ProPokerTools.  The example is if I hold 5567 double suited against a tight player who has 4bet me so I assume he has aaxx.  We both have full stacks at $1000 PLO.  The preflop action is cutoof raises to $35 and I raise to $120 on the button and the CO reraises to $375.  For me to call his 3bet is $255 more.  The villain has $625 left and the pot size is $765.  If he shoves any flop the pot will be $1390.  We will need 625/(1390+625)=31% equity to break even on this hand.  The following calculation shows whether or not it is profitable to call this four bet. 

If you plug this into pro poker tools you will find out that if he goes all in on the flop we can continue on 57% of the flops. 

We use the formula of ev(post flop)=call%*(total_pot*avg_eq-Flop_shove)

To get average equity we break the graph down into its inflection points.  For this example it is:

avg_equity=12/57(99+85/2)+13/57(85+55/2)+21/57(55+46/2)+10/57(45+33/2)

avg_equity=12/567*.92+13/57*.7+21/57*.505+10/57*.39

=.608

This is basically saying on 10% of flops we have 92% equity on 10% we have 70% equity, on 10% we have 50% and on 10% we have 39%.  You can break the graph up into as many sections as you want.

From there we put it into our original formula.

EV(post flop)=.57(2015*.608-625)

=.57*600.12

=342

In the example we have to call $255 preflop therefore our post flop equity is 342 and 342-255 is

$87.  So if we believe this opponent will push any flop with his aaxx we can profitably call his three bet and shove when we have a piece of the flop. 

Hey Guys,

Just wanted to mention something that I think is important when deciding on what line you may want to take during certain hands or in certain situations.  This is the topic of equity realization.  equity realization is when during a hand a player continues on the flop or turn, to make a certain hand or realize their equity.  So in some situations you don't want to give a free card because if you do the turn or river could bring a card that allows your opponent to find that equity they are looking for in the hand.  However in some situations you want your opponents to realize equity, or atleast believe they have equity wich they do not. 

So say you have AA and the flop comes something like 892 with two of one suit.  Even though you have a strong hand you want do not want to allow your opponent to realize equity in the hand if they have a straight draw with some flush equity or say a pair of nines with an overcard and flush draw.  Therefore you will probably want to take the pot down right there based on your opponents perceived range and take a strong line on that flop. 

There are some situations that you want your opponent to realize this type of equity.  If you have AA and the flop is A92 rainbow and you are in position.  If you are led into you can just call here since there are no turn cards that hurt your equity or you could just check around.  This is because you want your opponent to gain some equity in this hand which can cause them to either make a mistake or put in money with improper odds. 

Another situation is of course if you have the nut flush.  It is all about allowing your opponent to think things they shouldn't.  However as stated before you may want to play certain hands stronger to keep this from happening.  Of course sometimes you lose because of this type of play however you make way more in the long run.  Just something for everyone to think about.   

Hey everyone,

I've been meaning to knock out a blog in the last couple of days but they have been interesting and busy.  I got back from the crop production show yesterday.  I got into some bourbon on my last night in the city, so I was hungover for the drive home.

Today I was supposed to load two semi's worth of mustard seed.  However one of the guys plowed into the ditch.  It was quite the process to get him out without tipping the truck over.  So I pretty much took all day to accomplish what I needed to.

Also my harley was trailered up and sent to the city to get the dent in the fender fixed after i binked it off with a mountain bike in the garage.  Oh well, there are worse things in the world.  I actually kind of want to replace that stock fender.  However if I had my way I'd be changing the look of the bike but I'm not too worried about it.  All in good time and it looks good as it is and I've got it juiced up with a 103' engine and close to 90hp. 

Pokerwise things are going ok.  About to clear a $75 bonus on ftp for gold in December.  I've been playing fairly well.  Could be better though so I'll be working on that.  However sometimes I think I need to fold some of my range in some situations.  I also think I need to be more aggressive on the turn and river.  However I am still paranoid about getting it in against top range, all the time but this is rarely the case and my ranges are strong against their possible hands.  Just part of the evolution of ones game.  I'm also working on my bet sizing to accomplish different things on the turn and river.  Stacked a nice 440bb pot last night however with the nuts.  I've been seeing lots of premium cards and situations.  Just need to break through and crush it.

I'm also trying out a new setup with a new 26" monitor and my laptop.  We'll have to see how it all  works out.  I almost like 4 tabling on my laptop and doing other things on the big screen.  Well hope everyone is running well at the tables.

Hey Everyone,

Well the weekend is here and probably the most profitable time of the week for grinders, especially with all the equity in the larger tournaments and tournament fields.  It is hard to say which is the most profitable time playing against the North American players or the crazy Euros.  I think it is always worthwhile to check the country of origin for each player since this can usually help you determine either a skill level or aggression factor.  This of course is more prevalent in a game like PLO were scandanavian players are usually more willing to get it in with less equity than North American players who are used to more of a Holdem background and are more taggish on draws.  This is only the case though at the micros since players know the deal at the higher stakes or else they would not have been there.  Maybe I will put in a bit of a session later today. 

Rigth now I am sitting in the big city(couple hundred thousand people) for the western Canadian crop production show.  Pretty much one of the biggest agricultural forums of the year so it is always a must attend for many reasons.  Production contracts come out as well as many companies have show specials on equipment and accessories so it is always a good time to pick up thing a guy might need for the spring.  Its always good to get back to the city of my alma mater and see all the people I went to University with. 

Zimba and I had a short dialogue the other night about poker and the economy, and how people think of it as such a bad habit.  However poker is definitely one of the best hobbies going for entertainment value.  I will keep this quick but here are some things you can equate it to.  If you go to a movie now and get popcorn I am sure it would cost you atleast $20 of unrecoverable expense if not more.  Which equates to 15 or so $1 SNGs or tournaments.  It could also equate to different levels of buyins at the micros.  However I can assure you that 15 Sngs will have a greater time factor than one movie.  Also you can maximize your utility and intrinsic value you all at the same time.  This in economics is a good thing.  However some people like to spend upwards of $100 and up on hobbies each week for different things and more depending on equipment needed or the like.  Yet sometimes people still attach a negative stigma with people who like to play skill games for money such as poker, backgammon or chess.  I guess the thing is that if you have the means for whatever level of hobby you choose poker is still just as good an alternative to kill some time on the weekend or whatever you want to use it for.  You do not have to bust the bank to play, and you can still do plenty of other things with your time and money if you want.  Just some food for thought I guess for all you new players who sometimes get hassled over the money you invest trying to enjoy poker as a hobby. 

Hey to the Poker Curious Community,

I figure I might as well start a blog just so I can atleast introduce myself and tell you my poker story.  If people read it and I get some positive feedback I might just keep it rolling.  However I always feel when I enter a new poker community like this I should share my poker history so people aren't wondering why the hell I say the things I do. 

Well I'm a 27 yr old farmer and writer from Saskatchewan Canada.  So in essentially I gamble for a living and gamble for a hobby as well.  Pretty much this means I work all summer and can play poker most of the winter.

I started playing serious poker in the fall of 2005 I guess it was.  I had built a bankroll from winning two freeroll events, receiving two free fifty dollar trials on some new sites(with withdrawal restrictions of course), and being the campus rep for The Online College Poker Championships who were very good to me.  When I got all of the points out of my way I had $250 of a bankroll and shipped it to Pacific Poker which had a sweet first time deposit at that site which was something like 75% of your deposit but they just gave it to you straight up and you didn't have to clear it.  I didn't know much except what I had learned from the forums so I settled in like most at the time and played .25/.5 lhe full ring.  I played only top ten starting hands OOP and maybe the top twenty in position or when I had great odds with a marginal hand in the blind.  Needless to say I crushed those games that fall.  I was up about $1k in four months just playing a super tight aggressive style.  No one at the time was really exploiting me and I don't know how.  So I kept building and building.  However I felt no need to move up, which I think was because I wasn't evolving my game.  I wasn't on any forums or anything like that, I just crushed my limit and was happy doing so.  So I just kept cashing out and cashing out.  I paid some bills with it, and bought some nice Christmas presents, or I treated myself out to a night to play live in the casino.  I would shortstack 5/10 dealers choice and I actually did very well having only two losing sessions out of the 6 I played that winter.  It was at this time I moved my original roll of $250 to Full Tilt and cashing out whatever it was I had left.  

It was at this time I decided to start playing O8 full time.  So I read up on it and once again I started nut peddling my way up the ranks again, playing as high as $1/$2 online.  However spring came along with my busy summers of working.  I cashed out all but $50 of my roll since I didn't want to spazz off my entire roll being tired one day.  Eventually I graduated with a BSc in Agribusiness and a minor in Food and Bioproduct Resource Entrpreneurship(which involved some nice game theory classes), and a second minor in poker I'd say.

Since then I have really only played for fun and not as seriously as I once did however I'm trying to get real serious about it again to try and make some monies for fun since extra money is always fun.  I have played everything from PLO(which I'm trying to master right now but running terrible below ev) to 8 game, and nlhe as well as taking a run at MTT and SNG's.  I just really love the game and wanted to try  I have also been a member of Cardrunners for about three years now and I gold member for a year and a little.  I try to take in as much as possible from them.  So I guess if you guys want to follow my winter PLO journey just let me know.