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Date Posted: October 14th, 2009 (7:09pm)

Can I believe my own eyes? 

    Is proof really proof? 
    Apparently, most people pay far less attention to data than might be wise.
    Most of us would rather base our opinions on anecdotes, hearsay, theories and advertisements. 
    Data is difficult.  Complex even. 
    And while we might be condemned to repeat history if we don't remember history, history is just so much data.  And data is no guarantee of the future.
    However, to paraphrase Winston Churchill, data is the worst way for us to form our opinions, except for all the other ways.
    Except... for... all... the... other... ways.
 
    Humans are emotional beings who often make judgments with the heart and/or gut, then look for evidence to verify that decision.  This filtering of data to discern "information" consistent with what we want to believe is called my-side bias.
    Players who chase a couple of outs to the river are seeing what they want to see.  Or hope, even pray, to see.  Players who make the hero call are often ignoring a mass of data suggesting a fold. 
    When confronted with evidence which is contrary to what we want to believe, we look for any scintilla of information to confirm our view.  It's just human nature.
    But it is probably bad poker.
 
    And I have the data to prove it.
    As many as 100% of all the hotshot instructors on all the numerous training sites make use of heads-up displays (HUDs). 
    100%.  Maybe more.
    It's irrefutable.
    So, to make a short blog even shorter, let me just say I am in the process of installing Hold'em Manager. 
    Oh, yeah, that's how I roll.  Look out!!
 
    To be perfectly honest,
    I can't promise I'll play any better. 
    But I will for sure
    be ignoring more data
    than ever before
    when I make that hero call.
   
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JackDogWelch Added 10/15/09 5:18pm
First of all, to be perfectly honest, I never gave site "permission" a thought. As noted, every instructor on every training site (not PXF) seems to be using HUDs. On second thought, maybe only cash game instructors. There are sites which datamine The Entirety OF THE Internet, which is not my interest. Nor will I pay for that.
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XPOKERCHIC Added 10/15/09 5:09pm
Update: I found several sites that say that the software is allowed on FT. This is hard to decide if you can or cannot use it legally. Keep me updated as to how it helps your game. X
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XPOKERCHIC Added 10/15/09 5:02pm
I tried the Holdem Manager on a free trial this year and I loved it. I just did not have enough money to purchase it. The only problem is some sites frown upon the use of the HUDS. It drove my virus protection software up the wall, but that is the only complaint I have. Email from Fulltilt: Thank you for contacting Full Tilt Poker Support. The use of softwares that contain statistics derived from hands and/or tournaments in which you did not participate are prohibited. However, programs or sites that track and analyze hands that you played are permitted. It has since come to our attention that Holdem Manager provides such prohibited stats and for that reason players are no longer allowed to use this software. Please accept our apologies for any confusion caused. Many new sites like Holdem Manager are appearing every day and we are doing our best to keep up to date with them. I hope that I have addressed your concern sufficiently. Should there be anything else that I can be of assistance in, please do not hesitate to write to us. Regards, Jamie Poker Specialist Full Tilt Poker Support
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